The war with Iran has renewed, and we are already seeing much of the same back and forth that characterized the end of the conflict’s first stage.
How this plays out is anybody’s guess. I do not know, and neither do the television generals, Wall Street strategists, Main Street Media correspondents or Internet Experts currently pretending they have access to the battle plans.
I have suggested all along that this would become a longer and more prolonged conflict, with negative implications for inflation and interest rates. Increasingly, it appears that I am unfortunately going to be right.
Being right about geopolitics does not make us any money. Responding intelligently to what the markets actually dobecause of those developments might.
That is where our attention needs to remain.
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A Strong Month for the Portfolio
The Small-Cap Momentum Portfolio has had an excellent month. We are up approximately 5.5%, well ahead of the broader market’s roughly 3.6% gain. During the past week, the portfolio gained about 2% while the overall market was essentially flat.
We are well positioned as we move into the back half of the summer.
Before we get into the broader market, credit conditions and the renewed inflation threat, we have an important portfolio management change to discuss.
We are going to begin aggressively selling half of any position that reaches a 100% gain, starting with our best performer.
This is the part that matters.
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