Yesterday I sent you a list of KKR’s 15 highest conviction buys for the next decade. Today, I want to go more in-depth on how KKR sees the global economy and markets changing over the next ten years, for Premium subscribers only - along with my latest macro video update.
See, I think one of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming that private equity firms see the world the same way Wall Street analysts, economists, and television pundits do.
They do not.
Economists spend their days debating whether GDP will grow 1.7% or 2.1%. Sell side analysts argue about whether a company will earn $4.92 or $5.03 next year. Private equity investors ask a completely different question. They ask where capital is going to be scarce, where demand is going to explode, and which assets will become impossible to replace over the next decade.
That difference in perspective is why I always read the major outlook pieces from firms like KKR. These folks are not trying to predict next quarter's earnings.
They are trying to figure out where to put billions of dollars for the next 5 to 10 years.
KKR's new Mid Year Outlook for 2026, titled "The Divergence Conundrum," is one of the more interesting reports I have read this year. While there is plenty of discussion about inflation, productivity, geopolitics, interest rates, and economic growth, the most useful section for investors is the Picks and Pans section.
That is where the firm moves beyond theory and tells us where they actually want to put money to work.
The overarching theme is simple. KKR believes we are moving away from a world that rewarded efficiency and toward one that rewards resilience. For 30 years companies focused on reducing costs, outsourcing production, minimizing inventories, and stretching supply chains around the globe.
That model worked wonderfully until it did not.
This is the part that matters.
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